Brian: Proposition. If the Royals were to go .500 for the year that would equal 40.5 points. Lets set that as the base line, and whatever percentage below .500 is calculated as profit I owe you on the Royals (you "short" them) and I'll go long taking the point gain on anything above .500. We settle it like a bet. I figure, if the Royals win the Central, you end up oweing me 10-12 points tops and I have similar downside potential if they finish in the basement. Too complicated? or just complicated enough to attract your interest?
I will also give anyone 4 points right now, if they agree to give me 11 points in the event that I hold the Royals through the end of the season AND they finish last in their division.
Can't make it 5. I actually think that 4 is way high since the contract is voided if I don't finish the season with the Royals on my roster AND I'm already offering a 36% premium in a division with 5 teams. all things being equal, each team has a 20% chance of finishing last. But things aren't equal and the Royals are in 2nd place, so I think the price is already VERY fair. This is a good way for you to leverage your other bet with me, but I was thinking of it as a hedge against a massive Royals collapse and a year end win percentage in the .3-.4 range. Still, a hedge is a hege and if you'll take it at 4 I'll do it.
Mauricio Soler is probably the best available cyclist. He's the odds favorite for "king of the mountain" so I figure he has to win some mountain stages to get that title. Stages = points.
That's still a 40% premium and the Royals have way better than a 60% chance of not being last. 36% is already too high. If you are worried about your back-end point exposure I'm willing to do the deal with a 10 point payout, but I'll only pay 3.5 point premium. Or we can do 3 points for a 9 point payment. Whatever point totals you want, but I can't go higher than a 36% premium.
please stop taking 5 minutes from me every time you decide to write 30 emails about an inane and totally pointless sukbject. pick up the phone and feel free to write a single, all-encompassing post on the fascinating results of your dealings. gad this league is a waste of time go cardinals!!
Glad to hear from you Campbell. Brian: My structure is not completely pointless...I just transfered the points and you moved up a spot by .5 as a result. Perhaps give your troops a morale boost...
The Royals will not finish with a winning record.
ReplyDeleteBrian: Proposition. If the Royals were to go .500 for the year that would equal 40.5 points. Lets set that as the base line, and whatever percentage below .500 is calculated as profit I owe you on the Royals (you "short" them) and I'll go long taking the point gain on anything above .500. We settle it like a bet. I figure, if the Royals win the Central, you end up oweing me 10-12 points tops and I have similar downside potential if they finish in the basement. Too complicated? or just complicated enough to attract your interest?
ReplyDeleteDrop A's Add Royals
ReplyDeleteInsta-call. (That means I accept.)
ReplyDeleteOh, and also:
ReplyDeleteDrop Blue Jays, pick up Athletics.
That drop will go active after the end of the 9th inning in today's victory over the White Sox.
ReplyDeleteI will also give anyone 4 points right now, if they agree to give me 11 points in the event that I hold the Royals through the end of the season AND they finish last in their division.
ReplyDeleteI'm very tempted. Make it 5 and you got a deal.
ReplyDeleteBrian, any interest in picking up a cyclist? Odds are here for the current Giro:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.oddschecker.com/other-sports/cycling/giro-d-italia/win-market
pellizotti, if he's taken, cunego.
ReplyDeleteCan't make it 5. I actually think that 4 is way high since the contract is voided if I don't finish the season with the Royals on my roster AND I'm already offering a 36% premium in a division with 5 teams. all things being equal, each team has a 20% chance of finishing last. But things aren't equal and the Royals are in 2nd place, so I think the price is already VERY fair.
ReplyDeleteThis is a good way for you to leverage your other bet with me, but I was thinking of it as a hedge against a massive Royals collapse and a year end win percentage in the .3-.4 range. Still, a hedge is a hege and if you'll take it at 4 I'll do it.
Both taken. Taken ones are:
ReplyDeleteDi Luca Cavendish Cunego Wurf Leiphammer Pellizotti Bennati Basso Armstrong
Mauricio Soler is probably the best available cyclist. He's the odds favorite for "king of the mountain" so I figure he has to win some mountain stages to get that title. Stages = points.
ReplyDeleteI'll do it if the payback is 10.
ReplyDeleteI'll take Michael Rogers.
ReplyDeleteThat's still a 40% premium and the Royals have way better than a 60% chance of not being last. 36% is already too high. If you are worried about your back-end point exposure I'm willing to do the deal with a 10 point payout, but I'll only pay 3.5 point premium. Or we can do 3 points for a 9 point payment. Whatever point totals you want, but I can't go higher than a 36% premium.
ReplyDeleteAll this talk of premiums, back-end exposure, etc. It's just an 11-4 odds bet.
ReplyDeleteAnd 3-9 is worse for me than 4-10, you donkey.
I accept at 4/11. It's still a great bet.
It's more fun my way.
ReplyDeleteScallet, I'm taking 4 of my points and giving them to Brian.
ReplyDeletegonnorea
ReplyDeleteplease stop taking 5 minutes from me every time you decide to write 30 emails about an inane and totally pointless sukbject.
pick up the phone and feel free to write a single, all-encompassing post on the fascinating results of your dealings.
gad this league is a waste of time
go cardinals!!
Glad to hear from you Campbell.
ReplyDeleteBrian: My structure is not completely pointless...I just transfered the points and you moved up a spot by .5 as a result. Perhaps give your troops a morale boost...
Don't let the door hit you on the hop-hop out.
ReplyDeleteDrop Basso add Menchov.
ReplyDelete